ACTIVE, PENDING, AND SOLD PROPERTIES AS OF OCTOBER 30, 2022.
High Season is here. Seller’s expectations are high. Will snowbird buyer’s show up intending to take advantage of a market trending in their favor? Interest rates are a problem although, as you will see below, a small ray of hope did shine this past week. So, does the market have any oomph left in it?
Housing market analysts and wannabe economists like myself use many tools to determine the health of the housing market. A favorite tool is the Listing Success Rate. The “Listing Success Rate” is the percentage of listings that closed with a sale rather than expiring or being canceled. It compares the number of listings sold This Month with the number of listings sold, expired or canceled in the same period. This percentage gives a useful indication of what percentage of terminated listings closed successfully. For example, if in Month x 100 listings sold and 125 listings were sold, expired or were cancelled, the Listing success for the month was 100/135 = 74%.
It is surprising that greater use is not made of the Listing Success Rate by analysts and agents. It is one of the most reliable measures of the health of the housing market and is both timely and accurate. The only serious problem it has is in January when it dives because of the large number of listings that expire on December 31. It pops back up again in February. This need not concern us right now when looking at the past 6 months:
Anything over 80% is extraordinarily high and back in April we were still over 90%. The massive cooling trend brought us down to 70% by August and we have drifted lower since then to a near deep freeze. The key to interpreting the Listing Success Rate chart is to remember that 67% represents a normal balanced market with supply and demand roughly equal. In the last month we have dropped below 67% and are currently recording a success rate of 65%. The rate of decline is slow but accelerating.
The market is weak from a volume perspective, but it is close to normal when thinking about the balance between supply and demand. Buyers have a slight advantage over sellers. For those who have entered the Phoenix housing market within the last 14 years, the Listing Success Rate was 23% in early 2008. That was a truly dreadful market for sellers. The current situation only looks bad when compared with the last 10 years. Compared with 2008 it looks just peachy.
What about interest rates? As of 10/26 (the date I wrote this article), mortgage rates were on their best 5-day winning streak since late July. It wasn't the largest decline in rates over a 5-day time frame (late July saw more movement in fewer days). But the consistency suggests a potential shift in the overall tone from unequivocal panic to something more balanced. Not that bonds/rates are moving purely based on emotion and anticipation of a softer stance from the Fed. Certainly the Fed expectations account for some of the friendly momentum enjoyed by rates this week, but in today's case, there were a few supporting actors. These included a European Central Bank (ECB) announcement that was slightly friendlier than markets were expecting and a few clues in economic data that suggested Fed policies were beginning to have an impact.
The Fed's impact is obvious in the housing and mortgage markets--a fact even more widely understood with the weekly Freddie Mac survey finally crossing above 7%. Yes, it is ironic rates have moved lower for 5 days in a row to the best levels in 3 weeks and the Freddie survey showed rates moving up to new 20-year highs. After being closer to the "mid 7s" on Friday, October 20, rates are now in the low 7’s for the average lender and, in many cases, the high 6's. We will see little to no improvement in the market until we get back into the 5's, which we will but it may be awhile.
The takeaway today is the market is just now turning to a slight buyer's market and interest rates appear to be stabilizing around 7%. The housing market will remain stagnant as buyer's struggle to cope with high mortgage rates and high prices. Watch for the market to bounce back strong if rates get back down into the 5's. That might be awhile.
Support your local real estate agent and buy a house this week!
I am a year-round Corte Bella resident and I put 100% of my effort into Corte Bella sales transactions although occasionally, I will assist my sales clients relocating to another area in Arizona. As the market changes it is important you have clear picture of the value of your home should you decide to sell. No one knows Corte Bella than I do. I sell Premier Properties and provide Premier Service. It makes a difference.
CORTE BELLA HOMES REPORT
October 30, 2022
ACTIVE LISTINGS:
22036 N Arrellaga Dr., Arcada Model, 1,660/sf., 2/2,- $425,000
13703 W Nogales Dr., Arcada Model, 1,660/sf., 2/2 - $473,000
22512 N San Ramon Dr., Bellita Model, 1,154/sf., 2/2, GC lot - $478,000
22027 N Arrellaga Dr., Arcada Model, 1,684/sf, 2/2 + Den - $485,500
13413 W Junipero Dr., Arcada Model, 1,660/sf, 2/2 + Den - $497,500
13105 W Junipero Dr., Arcada Model, 1,684/sf, 2/2 + Den - $499,000*
13838 W Nogales Dr., San Marco Model, 1,904/sf., 3/2, Vacant, Corner Lot - $499,900*
12818 W Junipero Dr., Montecito Model + Casita, 1,628/sf, 3/3, $10k Closing Allowance - $500,00.00
12948 W Micheltorena Dr., San Ysidro Model, 1,811/sf., 2/2 - $515,000
12939 W Micheltorena Dr., San Marco Model, 3/2, Expanded Garage - $539,000
22133 N Arrellaga Dr., San Ysidro Model, 1,837/sf., 3/2, Fire Pit, Lg Yard - $550,000
23307 N De La Guerra Ct., Arcada Model, 1,684/sf., 2/2, Pool - $560,000***
13432 W Los Bancos Dr., Encanto Model, 2,095/sf., 2/2 Plus Den, Corner lot - $589,750***
12750 W Nogales Dr., San Marco Model, 2,151/sf., 3/3, Casita, Fire Pit - $599,000
12959 W. Rincon Dr., San Marco Model, 1,904/sf., 3/2 - $599,900
22823 N Los Gatos Dr., Encanto Model, 2,095/sf., 3/2, Casita - $619,900
13827 W Figueroa Dr., Encanto Model, 1,684/sf., 2/2, Covered Patio - $622,500
22813 N Las Positas Dr., San Marco Model, 1,904/sf., 3/2, GC Lot - $635,000
13524 W Sola Dr., Cambria Model, 2,362/sf, 3/2 Plus Office - $639,000
12904 W La Vina Dr., Cambria Model, 2,423/sf., 3/2 Plus Wine Room - $675,000
13739 W Sola Dr., Alameda Model, 2,726/sf., 3/2.5, 2.5 Car Garage - $677,000
13005 W Panchita Dr., Cambria Model, 2,690/sf., 3/2, Casita - $694,000
22132 N Los Gatos Dr., Encanto Model, 2,095/sf., 2/2, GC Lot - $699,000
12832 W Rincon Ct., Cambria Model, 2,470/sf., 2/2, Pool - $725,000
12950 W Quinto Dr., Mirada Model, 2,559/sf., 3/2.5 - $729,000
23109 N Hank Ramon Dr., Figueroa Model, 2,840/sf., 3/3.5, Casita, GC Lot - $750,0000
22915 Las Positos Dr., San Marco Model, 2,151/sf., 3/3, Plus 1 BR/1 Casita, GC Lot - $825,000
22817 N Galicia Dr., Mirada Model, 2,593/sf., 2/2, Cart Garage, GC Lot - $827,000
13147 W Sola Ct., Granada Model, 3,027/sf., 3/2.5, GC Lot - $875,000
22111 N Giovota Dr., Mirada Model, 2,840/sf., 3/2.5, Casita, GC Lot - $888,000
13239 W Rincon Dr., Granada Model, 3,255/sf., 4/3.5, Casita, GC Lot - $920,000
13220 W Los Bancos Dr., Granada Model, 3,027 sf., 3/2.5, Pool - $920,000
22108 San Ramon Dr., Figueroa Model, 2,784/sf, 3/3, 3-car garage, Pool, GC Lot - $949,900
* New listing this week
** Price reduction
*** Temporarily off market
**** Back on Market
COMING SOON
22609 N Galicia Dr., 2,840/sf., 3/3.5, Mirada Model + Casita, GC Lot - $889,900. First Open House 11/4, 10:00 am - 1:00 pm.
UNDER CONTACT ACCEPTING BACKUPS
12812 W Junipero Dr., Arcada Model, 1,684/sf., 2/2, vacant - $449,000
22314 N Padaro, Encanto Model, 2,579/sf., 3/3, Former Model Home, Casita - $769,900*
23230 N Del Monte Dr., Mirada Model, 2,806/sf., 3/3.5, Casita, Pool, GC Lot - $933,000
UNDER CONTRACT CONTINGENT ON BUYER SALE:
13510 Nogales Dr., Arcada Model, 1,684/sf., Private lot - $505,000
23215 N Cardenas Dr., Mirada Model, 2,805/sf., 3/3.5, Casita, Putting Green - $729,950
22002 N Valerio Dr., Figueroa Model, 2,785/sf., 2/2, Spa, GC Lot - $799,000
PENDING LISTINGS:
23023 N Pedregosa Dr., Mirada Model, 2,593/sf., 2/2.5, 3-car garage, Pool - $798,000
22547 N Padaro Dr., Figueroa Model, 2,784/sf., 2/2.5, GC Lot, Pool - $925,000
SOLD LISTINGS (10/01/22 – 10/30/22):
22619 N Las Positas Dr., 1,636/sf., 2/2, New Kitchen, Pool - $550,000
23903 N Las Positas Dr., San Marco Model, 2/2, 1,904/sf., GC Lot - $635,000
22207 N Montecito Ave., Cambria Model, 2,423/sf., 3/2, Pool - $649,900
12853 W Junipero Dr., San Ysidro Model, 1,837/sf., 2/2 - $675,000
22931 N. Padaro Dr., Encanto Model, 2,095/sf., 3/2, Casita - $725,000
13265 W Micheltorena Ct., Alameda Model, 2,726/sf., 3/2.5, cart garage, Pool - $710,000
I am not be the listing agent on many of the above properties. However, if you or someone you know is interested in touring one of these properties, I would be happy to arrange a showing.
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